Tag: risk management in lean organizations

Contingency Planning For Lean Organizations – H1N1 (Swine Flu) – Reference

In our first post on Contingency Planning For Lean Organizations, we made reference to the current situation regarding the H1N1 virus or Swine Flu. We also suggested that history may provide relevant information that can be used to aid in future crisis event planning.

Michael A. Roberto, author of “Know What You Don’t Know” copyright 2009 by Pearson Education Inc., presents a case surrounding the 1976 “swine flu” incident to exemplify how faulty analogies can have devastating effects. In his book, Michael Roberto cites research of Richard Neustadt and Ernest May.

An excerpt from the book, reference pages 77-78, reads as follows:

“In that situation, President Gerald Ford and his advisors drew an erroneous analogy to the infamous flu epidemic of 1918. The faulty analogy led them to dramatically overestimate the seriousness of the problem they faced. As a result, they embarked on a very comprehensive and unnecessary immunization program. Roughly five hundred people experienced a serious side effect that was linked to the immunizations, and twenty five people died.”

This may explain the slow, seemingly uncoordinated, pace of the government to address the current H1N1 outbreak. Many people remain skeptical as to whether the immunization process is safe. This skepticism may be warranted. Again, referencing Michael Roberto’s book “Know What You Don’t Know” (page 78), “More people died from the immunization than from the flu itself.”

The experts of the day advised that this could be another epidemic. Two prior non-swine flu outbreaks, one in 1957 and the other in 1968, caught the government off guard. It is more than noteworthy that an estimated twenty million people were killed world-wide by the virus during the epidemic of 1918.

With mounting pressure from the Centers for Disease Control to avoid history repeating itself and in an effort to be pro-active, immunizations were ordered and given to an estimated forty million people. What would you have done?

For more information we recommend reading “Knowing What You Don’t Know – How Great Leaders Prevent Problems Before They Happen” by Michael A. Roberto, copyright 2009 by Pearson Education Inc., publishing as Wharton School Publishing, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey 07458 (ISBN: 0-13-156815-9), Pages 202.

Also see Warner, J. “The Sky Is Falling: An analysis of the Swine Flu Affair of 1976.” http://www.harverford.edu/biology/edwards/disease/viral_essays/warnervirus.htm

Until Next Time – STAY Lean!

Advertisements

Lean Contingency Planning For Lean Operations – IT and the BSOD

Coincidentally, we are having a first hand experience with the Blue Screen of Death or BSOD with one of our laptops today.  The completely unexpected critical system error that renders Windows completely helpless.  If this isn’t on your list of IT concerns, it should be.

In our case the error appears to be video related – driver or card.  Most IT specialists know how to deal with these types of errors but for the average user, the message that appears is enough to make you sweat.  If the system can’t fix the error, you may very well end up staring at a Black Screen – just as we are.

How is it that we were still able to produce this POST?  Well, we are currently executing our contingency plan and using another system that is operated independently.  Most companies back up their data to prevent or minimize loss.  Another concern that is often overlooked is accessibility to that back up data in the event the system goes down.

What have we learned?

We are not the first to experience this problem.  We did a Google search using some brief terms such as “Computer Black Screen”, “Laptop Black Screen”, and we even Googled parts of the error message that appeared on the screen.  The result?  Thousands of people have experienced this same error.

The point of this post is to demonstrate that you do not have to re-invent the wheel to determine potential solutions or to discover problems that may occur.  Quite likely, they may already have happened and solutions are already developed and available.

There are two probable solutions to our video issue:

  1. Update the video device driver (Free)
  2. Replace the video card (Cost $)

Hopefully, the first solution is the answer to our problem.  Video cards are not sitting on our shelf and the downtime may be extended if we can’t find something locally.

It is noteworthy that we have not yet identified the root cause of this failure.  We haven’t loaded any new software or experienced problems in recent history.  This may be the topic for a future problem solving post.

Regardless of the outcome of our present dilemma, we have learned that it is a good idea to keep device drivers up to date.  As a planned activity, this may prevent some of you from having to experience the BSOD as we have today.

The loss incurred for this event is more than just the cost to repair.  This computer may be down for a few days.  How much is the down time worth?  Unless we play out the scenarios that may threaten or pose a risk to our business, we may never have the opportunity to prepare for the event until it actually happens.

Keep an open mind and use the resources available to you to help solve the problem.  In some cases a simple Google search could confirm your concern in a matter of seconds.

Until Next Time – STAY Lean!